Bitcoin prices looked set to test support at the $3650-3750 area within the 4-month ascending triangle formation I’ve drawn in the chart below, which has seen sentiment swing from ‘too bearish’ in late December to ‘too bullish’ by the time our conference ended in February. This is a development that I didn’t anticipate. I expected sentiment to remain largely bearish, which would give me more confidence that the triangle will provide a solid bottom. I would like to see more surrender in sentiment again before a breakout, to be honest. But I have to admit that the action in the market looks solid for a break and run to $5k.

More broadly the sentiment and psychology is still largely pessimistic, complacent, or confused.

Right now I’m not trading it, just buying.

I like buying it here and if it goes lower I will hope to buy it lower. I believe these prices are at the low end of what they will be in a few years so I don’t mind accumulating more, at least up to 20% of our allocation.

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