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The more likely scenario is that we remain rangebound 2, — 3, for the rest of the year. But it is possible we reach new all-time highs with so much devastation around us due to these reasons. Or… just stick to the same investment plan you have always had and rebalance as needed. Keep investing monthly if you are able. The only days that.
Most sell at the bottom and buy at the top. Virtually no one can consistently predict when the market will go up, or go down- therefore trying to time it is foolish. Many many studies show this. Warren Buffet admits as much. Rich Dad Poor Dad. The only day that matters is the day you buy and the day you sell… What is meant is the fluctuation of the value of a security between these two dates is irrelevant to the return.
Your kids have years before college. Your odds are in your favor that the stock market will be higher by then. Rather then a plan, purchase a rental property. As rental rates went up and mortgage balance went down, I put the profits towards paying off the mortgage which I was able to do so after year Fast forward to today. Love the article. My thoughts exactly. New to the blog here, but really enjoying the content.
I especially like the idea of shorting companies that have their values entirely determined by Terminal Values or what I like to call Hopes and Dreams. When the well runs dry, so does lenders tolerance for such ventures. I still would like to acknowledge that as educated a guess one can make, there is still no certainty on future economic growth or general market conditions. The opposite can be said for times in which productivity is improved with autonomy, AI, distribution networks, and much more.
Even so, at what net worth does it become best to diversify into asset classes like real estate or perhaps should this even be part of my portfolio construct from the get go. Thoughts on this? I am sure I am not the first person to suggest this…in the last downturn my k really took a hit. Now it did come back…but it took a few years.
It always comes back so why not sell high…and buy low? I am not a pro at all…just looking for some thoughts. Sure, if you time it well, you will win. But timing well is impossible to do long term. Probably best for most to just hold on and keep on buying during a downturn. I have been trying to explain to him why this is a bad investment strategy — but at the same time, he has a valid point — and why not sell high right now and buy back when the market crashes? I guess I need more reasons why or why not do what my spouse and David think is a investment strategy?
Lauren, I agree with your spouse. I wish I had done my research into how to protect a portfolio during a recession. I prefer riding the highs, cash out when the market is volatile, and wait until the market hits a low point. Figuring out the lowest point is the million dollar question. There are tools that you can look at to view technical indicators moving averages, RSI, MACD, etc that definitely require some expertise.
That would allow you to get in a better discount. But even without that, you can look at online charts of the indices yahoo finance, finviz. Many financial articles only barely scratch the surface of stock market investing. There is a catch if you have mutual funds. Actually, a better fix to the mutual fund issue is to switch to ETFs since they trade like stocks but have the same risk level as mutual funds because they invest in baskets of stocks like MFs.
This is my theory. I could be wrong. Plus, as soon as the Coronavirus starts to fizzle out in the summer, the market will likely continue to soar. Then, Trump will get re-elected for another surge. Would be a shame to miss the rebound. But the discount is great! I hope the coronavirus truly does fizzle. But I want back into stocks! It kinda feels good to get a second chance and building a decent equity position. What do you consider a decent equity position when re-entering the market? What type of equity would you consider a good long term investment?
Small cap index? In my experience about all you can do is start reallocating buckets. Will i win short term? In yrs? In 20 yrs? Pretty certain. But everything is market timing if you think about it. Achieving financial independence sooner, rather than later was always super important to me because it is a hedge against an early demise.
Any thoughts on what Carona will do to Real Estate? I keep thinking it will run out of steam….. Just keeps gaining. Sure feels like a bubble…. And i live in MI! NOT CA. I thin the coronavirus increases demand for larger homes and real estate in generally over stocks that have simply gone POOF overnight. I like real estate crowdfunding for this reason. You can invest in smaller amounts and not have to go all-in, and often with a mortgage.
I went all cash six months ago. I watched things keep going up. Valuations were too high. Retail investors were running up prices of stocks because they identified with the dope smoking ceo and his hipster existence rather than the soundness of the company. Tesla worth more than Ford, GM and Chevy and the millions of units they produce each year versus a few hundred thousand cars Tesla puts out? And those companies not very sound in and of themselves because of pension obligations?
When it stops making sense, I go out. Enron never made sense to me. That person never made a single payment but lived large for a year and a half before taking cash for keys. Something is at play that we are not going to be made privilege to. Bail and wait it out until things start functioning rationally. Hope you trusted your gut, went all cash in January, and plowed some of that into the vix which you sold last week. We CAN predict the future.
Toxic money, like toxic people, usually devours itself and brings down the economy-Coronavirus or not. Very cool. They either went all cash before the downturn, shorted the market during the downturn, or went all-in and bought stocks before the bull market began and held on until selling at the top. There is more money out there than we know. I did lose money. I lost money sitting in cash while everyone else was making money in the market. I was out half the year the vanguard went up more than 20 percent.
I have never shorted the market except this year when I took a lot of time to see how the VIX works. I work for a living. I come from a family that works for a living. You are old enough to have witnessed several of these cycles now-especially since they all follow the same pattern…evaluations divorced from reality, a black swan event, wealth redistribution. Got to love it when people come here to brag they went all cash before the market meltdown while most people lost a lot of money.
However, what do you think about what Ray Dalio says regarding debt monetization? He claims that the central banks will start buying treasuries with freshly printed money and this will cause inflation in first reserve currencies USD, EUR etc. I am not interested in taking any risk in the financial markets right now, so the no risk approach seems very good for me right now. Ray Dalio is like a broken clock. Good asset allocation tied to your risk tolerance and investing for the long-term have worked pretty well over time.
The trick is to keep your nerves and emotions in check, both through the ups and downs of the market. I have no problem with taking a little risk every now and then but buy and hold, for the most part, has been good to me.
I moved some money to the sidelines the week before last and I will want to get that money back into the market and catch some of the upside when things turn back around. Aloha Sam, I noticed this model spring up as a slightly different take to real estate peer to peer lending methodologies. Look at what one company is doing. Mahalo for your response on Worthy Bonds. Just keep on saving and keep on diversifying your investments throughout that time.
It is good to have some fire power to Invest if that downturn does come. Obviously this would be a hassle to do every day but theoretically is this possible? There will probably always be slippage. But the worst thing you can do is try to trade every day. You will not only lose to the commission cost, but time and cost. It is impossible to Trade every day successfully.
Some good insight in this article — most people do not know that you can make money on capital appreciation on long-duration treasury bond ETFs during a recession. You should caution people on investing in those ulta-short ETFs. They are designed to decline in value over time and should only be used for short periods of time. Perhaps you guys can advise on my current situation? My Navy retirement starts in 5 years 41 yrs old.
My brother is FDNY and retires in 10 years 40 yrs old. Financial Managers sell products. Should I position myself to enter the market after the predicted crash? Should I enter now? This article had some great options. Had a quick question about decay and going long on the volatility VXX you mentioned. Considering the exponential change once the market reverses it was over , during the recession.
I was intrigued by the decay idea and would like some clarification, if I read correctly it could make huge gains. Is there a penalty or cost for holding on to the ETF? They lose a huge amount of value over the long run because the underlying assets are constantly being rolled and rebalanced. They are a tactical trading instrument! Most of us are only investing in the markets for relatively short runs. We might have substantial capital in the markets for years.
The bull goes up the stairs and the bear goes out the window. You can reduce or hedge your exposure. I assume the next downturn will happen when the American financial industry at large achieves a net short position. And it gets worse need exponentially more gain for the greater loss you take. Flip the fraction. And why not add the possibility of just shorting an ES contract for instance. Taking all those problems away.
I mean holy hell. One of the basics to learn is accounting or double entrty bookkeeping. They used to teach it in grade school in some countries. In order to evaluate individual investments, one needs to have learned some accounting or double entry bookkeeping. One of the biggest fundamentals is double entry bookkeeping and accounting. It can be learned by ones self through books or in class. You could even talk to an accountant.
Accounting is mandatory knowledge for understanding the financial statements of individual entities companies, persons, governments, charities, etc. Thus it is mandatory and very helpful for analyzing individual investments records. Accounting is called the language of business and is endemic to all thriving societies.
It used to be taught in school. The robber barrens, Andrew Carnegie and Rockefeller, both learned it as boys. If you need some motivation to learn it talk to some people who understand it and ask them how valuable it is. And, the first half tells how important it has been in history. Actually some of her source material is excellent, but she does an excellent job.
This book is even more interesting while learning bookkeeping or having learned it. My solution is to hold portfolio insurance. The problem with big market loss in retirement is SORR. Till then you merely own shares and owning shares and not worrying about what they are worth is the name of the game.
The proper maneuver is to sell shares and convert them to bonds on the way up. Sell high buy low. This is called rebalancing. When the bear comes you do the opposite. Sell bonds and buy shares back. Buy low! If you are living off your wad what you need is a risk free asset to live on during the bear, and close the portfolio to withdrawal. How do you do that? Save 2 WR in a risk free account. What this does is re-index your portfolio to a better path.
If you go to the home page of FIREcalc you will see 3 portfolios one starting in 73 one in 74 and one in By rebalancing over those 2 years and living off your insurance, you would have front loaded your share ownership. You would have converted your excess bond money that you had collected in good times into shares. You live off the risk free asset and the portfolio insurance gives you the cajones to rebalance and not turn your shares into hamburgers.
I did VXX during the last downturn, good way to loose money. I recommend against. Portfolio is simple, cheap, low risk and all you have to do is stash a couple extra WR in something that has a very different risk profile than your portfolio. The point of a portfolio is not to die as the richest dead man in the grave yard but to not die poor.
We are definitely due for a recession within the next couple years and may even happen sometime this year. Great detailed post as usual Sam! What we face is the mother of all bubbles itself—bonds and the currency that denominates them. If sovereign debt implodes naturally or by CB devaluation then nominal shorts will get killed. CB liabilities are the currencies we use.
All bears will be shot. In the end the CBs will fail. Deflation will win and they will have no choice but to recapitalize the system with revalued gold. Gold Open Market Operations. The QE that will be delveraging in nature and actually heal sovereign balance sheets. So the way I see it, the only way to go short is to own physical gold and quality mining shares. No GLD. The gold bullion ETFS will likely trade at a discount as there are holes in the prospecti to drive a truck through.
Stay away from these things. Open a GoldMoney Holding, go to the coin shop buy some Eagles. I was one of those that graduated in the aftermath of the recession and I can clearly remember how difficult it was to secure a job, let alone a high paying one. What would you do if you were me? At your income at your age, the best thing you can do is make sure you never lose your job. Your income is your real moneymaker! I just posted regarding the impending recession this morning.
Investors need to seriously expect a major market downturn by at the latest. Great tips! First time post. Age early 40s, NW 2mm in unleveraged control income property in 3 midwestern states. And I have the option to leverage up if needed later to grab bargains. Could be good. Sam I like this better than REITs as a small play but giving up control in levered entities is painful for me — I was in numerous private partnerships like this and about half were eaten by bank debt in the recession.
We just plan to maintain our stress free passive income with min risk. That covers our K expenses. We not greedy. Our Ks are in fixed 4. Thank you for a different way to think about a downturn, WHEN it comes. I figure keeping three to five years expenses in safe investments guards against having to sell when markets stagnate, decline, or crash and gives time for equity investments to recover.
But, as Sam points out, this approach misses opportunity to make smaller returns, albeit better than those returns in a declining market. I will keep the dividend payers, though. Interesting, one can become investment return greedy without realizing it. This article is giving me major anxiety! I am in my late twenties and am still unable to pull the trigger with stock market investing. I am a long time reader and have been studying for years.
I think alot of people dont invest due to not even understanding the basics, real estate is much easier to comprehend at least for me! I really want to get started with investing any help is appreciated! Thanks Sam! Open a account at Vanguard. Vanguard is the largest brokerage firm in the world. You can do it online and it only takes about 10 minutes. Second invest in what they call the S P fund. The S P fund is made up of the largest US based companies in the world.
Every dollar you put in is split amongst all companies. This provides you with a lot of diversification. Diversification usually means less risk. A added bonus is that the majority of these companies earn money outside the US so your not only investing in the US your also investing in economies all over the world. This gives you even more diversification. Second, set up what they call automatic contributions. You pick a set dollar amount and Vanguard will automatically take that amount of money out of whatever account you picked the exact same time every day, week, or month.
By doing this you will not only buy stocks at all time highs, more importantly you will buy at the lowest of the lows and all the times stocks are not at the highs. Third, and I think most important click the button that allows you to reinvest your dividends. I started doing this in and according to Vanguard my annual returns since then have been If you are not worried though, buying the right stocks will work out better in the long run. Buy the puts for and sell the for Mr Market goes up, stays the same you have 1.
Buy the for sell the for If Mr. Market stays flat, ya make nothing, Mr. Market goes up you make gains from to Good stuff. Do you wanna try to guess post about option strategies to head your bets and make money during the downturn? When I move more into Mr. This is a long premium reverse iron condor strategy.
It works if you enter the trade when the volatility is low and you get paid when the volatility explodes. It rquires good timing or you would lose the premiums you pay to set up the trades. When you combine not spending money with long-term compounding, you will get rich beyond expectations. At 25, I can not imagine being anything less than fully invested. Having money sitting on the sidelines feels like it is burning a hole in my pocket!
What is to stop a person from taking a short position on VXX and just keeping it open long term to make money on the structural decay? Jordan volatility has been a very popular and crowded Trade over the years. But sometimes, volatility can spike drastically, as it did earlier this year and wipe out alot of games. Nothing stops a person from doing that. As Sam said, volatility can spike drastically with no warning, so it is a risky game. My current short position is so profitable that the spike this year hardly registered, and I added to my short position the day the short volatility trade blew up.
It makes no sense to cover my original short sales since the market value is converging to 0. My original shorted shares have gone through three 1 for 4 reverse splits already, LOL. The asset will not go below zero, so your maximum return is the share price you received initially when you shorted VXX. Also, you have to pay margin interest to your broker to maintain the short position, so your maximum return will begin to diminish over time when factoring in the interest you have been paying every month to your broker.
Not only what it will do to my inflated sense of my net worth, but also my job, income, and spending lifestyle. I am undecided if I want to sell some of my stock, or none and just keep buying. The market has taken a few hits the last 3 years and I ignored them and kept buying — that has worked out great.
If I sold then Feb for example because I thought it would be a downturn, that would have hurt a lot. The financial journey never ends. What investment strategy will you use Sam when you are 60? The old age conservative standard advice for you or the aggressive standard approach for your still young son? Once you have made finances an intergenerational issue then perhaps you are always young, the financial journey is always at the beginning — and thus should always be aggressive?
You are right in that once you extend the financial journey to our children, now looks like as good a time as ever to invest. Our children have the energy to go out there and earn and take risks. The older we get, the less energy and risk tolerance we have. We need the next generation to make their wealth and their mark.
In such a situation, of FI surpassing two three times expenses, you can safely look at your FI journey through the eyes and interests of your heirs. That is the counter argument to becoming ever more financially conservative with age. Most of the standard advice is given to people who have just enough to fulfill their financial goals so the advice concentrates in not running out of money before dying.
That may not apply to everyone — especially people who having been diligent about FI since their youth are now in a good position, hopefully the future situation of readers frequenting your blog. If we estate tax the gain then successful people will consider the risk not worthwhile, buy government bonds, and their funds become one thousand dollar staples and two thousand dollar staplers.
This is how estate taxes disincentivise economic growth and longer term prosperity. Tell us about your story and at what age you reached financial independence. How much was enough for you and how did you structure your portfolio? At the depth of the crisis I was below expenses. So I think I can now take a more holistic intergenerational approach, becoming aggressive again, in real estate for the time being.
For people who have a lot of offsprings this is obviously a bigger and more open ended challenge. There are, I think, a lot of articles you could write about how to teach our offspring to handle money properly. I, myself, feel clueless in that area. The world is moving ever faster. In the next twenty five years we will see more change than in the past fifty.
Then, the next cycle is likely to be half that at twelve and a half years, and then six snd a quarter… Simple arithmetic implies a singularity, actually. Human growth is not only continuing but the rate of growth itself is growing. There has never been a time in human existence where worldwide growth was a sustained four percent — not even remotely close.
And the rate of growth itself is on an ascending trendline. That is the vastly different world our heirs will live in. What lessons can we teach them about money? Do you have any idea? Then there was the slow recovery. Hi Sam. Love your blog. Good luck with market timing. Empirical evidence shows that it does not work.
Anecdotal evedence will show than one lucky person did time it right one time. How about if you accumulate more and live off 1. That is more or less the Warren Buffet solution. Works for me. The solution to having more money by accumulating more money is a logical one. What do you think that is?
The US is not that safe of an investment over years. It is the same logic as the sequence of return that terrifies new retirees. A black swan to the US is very realistic. Just when? Like a volcano in HI or an earthquake in California. It will happen. The reason is as follow: world domination is a zero sum game. Winner one day, looser an other. Further having a multi national stock is not as safe as 10 country specific stocks. Absolutely double down when there is blood in the water.
What about buying rental property and potentially taking only a small hit on modest rent decreases? I miss your logic: if US is black swaned what will happen to your SP dividend? You are too sure that your US dividend will be forever while unsure if US will keep its position in the world. How is that? If you were to just live off the dividend yield of SPY, why not double or triple or quadruple the yield by writing covered calls against your stocks.
By adding some short deltas to your primarily long positions, it reduces your net longs and as a result adds a small hedge against the downside risks. What will cause a recession in 2 years? There is a student loan bubble and I have not convinced myself of any outcome. There are also mature real-estate markets. I did talk to a mortgage broker in LA last week and he is convinced of something happening in the next 2 years because he is seeing more less qualified loans being written like So what will cause job loss?
Infrastructure spending is likely, and tax cuts will have more impact in Italy is a problem child. There is even a 2nd phase of tax cuts planned. Do you? For us, our biggest asset is absolutely our house I know, yikes. It seems we did get our house for a song. Our plan is to relocate closer to family with a baby due soon, it seems smart and cash out this house to buy something smaller. With our equity now, we can actually buy something outright with no mortgage or very little—seems like a smart move to shed the mortgage debt and streamline expenses.
They think our house increasing in value is a sign we should hold tight. But our mortgage payment is too high for our comfort and we are tempted by the prospect of ditching a mortgage altogether to help us start on a path to FIRE. If you can go mortgage free, go for it. It provides certainty. But if you bought a house at the depth of interest rates then why not keep that cheap mortgage and let inflation and higher safer returns vaporize your debt payment and balance over a relatively short time?
As I see interest rates and inflation rise I keep my low interest mortgages and celebrate the fact that the true cost and balance on my mortgages is being vaporized. What is being vaporized? It is the very investment money that the Fed forced investors to lend me at a low rate during the recession. But heck the Fed forced you to lend it to me for a song just a few years ago. Not only does the Aussie dollar rise thanks to higher demand and commodities, it also forms part of a popular carry trade whereby speculators buy Aussie dollars and borrow in yen to pocket the difference.
Click To View Full-size image. How to bet on a recovery:. How to bet on a recession:. Disclaimer: Please note all prices are for information only, they should not be relied upon for accuracy or trading. All prices quotes are based on CFD prices and are similar though not always identical to real exchange prices.
Japan set to enter recession but hope for rebound as… May 15, GDP numbers out of Japan will be headlining the start…. Coronavirus pushes German economy into recession May 15, The economy shrank 2. General Trading Binary Betting Tutorial. Market Data by TradingView.
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