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Spreads of 3. As a result, sharp bettors understand the value difference between placing a bet on an underdog at 3. It is also important to be able to read line movements. But instead of climbing, the spread actually falls away from the side the public is on. The oddsmakers are a lot better at this than you are. You have to respect that.
If a line looks too good to be true, there is probably a very good reason for it. Try to think like an oddsmaker and bet with the books. The public overreacts to everything that happens in the sports world. Media outlets like ESPN have built their empires stirring up the frenzy surrounding these games, and everything that happened five minutes ago is The Most Important Thing in the World.
Nowhere is this truer than the NFL, where teams play just once a week. That leaves a lot of time for hand wringing and carnival barking about which teams are great and terrible based solely on the most recent game. The Up-Down Theory suggests that teams that played poorly one week should be due for a regression the next, while a team that played above itself will come back down to earth.
For example, in Week 1 of the regular season, Philadelphia blitzed Washington in a marquee road win. That same night San Diego played horribly in the second half while collapsing in a loss to Houston. The two teams played the following Sunday. It was just the opposite. The Chargers bounced back Up while the Eagles slid back to reality Down , and the result was an outright upset win for San Diego.
The difference between the fifth-best team and the 20th-best team in the NFL is razor thin. So motivational and situational factors can play a huge factor in how games will develop. If Team A is on the road after a physical, emotionally draining rivalry win at home, then they are in a prime letdown spot.
If another squad is a West Coast team flying across country for the second straight week for a 1 p. EST start, then you have to figure they will be at a severe situational disadvantage against their opponent. Things like that have to be considered when making any wager in the NFL.
But betting against a team that might be looking ahead to a more important game the following week — a Look Ahead Situation — is often underappreciated by the general betting public. Also, momentum is a crucial aspect to any NFL season. Teams can get hot or go cold at any point.
And, especially late in the season, these streaks can lead to teams playing above themselves on the field and at the window. Never bet against a streak. You are better off either jumping on the gravy train or staying off the tracks. I will admit that the first thing bettors need to consider when putting money down on a team is the coach and quarterback matchups.
But I also feel like too much focus is put on skill position players in NFL betting. At its core, pro football is a physical, violent game. And the team that can physically impose its will and dominate its opponent at the point of attack has a huge advantage. You have to pay attention to how teams are set along the offensive and defensive lines. So many other aspects of the game are a direct result of how teams fare in the trenches.
Teams with poor offensive lines are more prone to sacks, turnovers and penalties, three things that can kill a good bet. Password at least 8 characters required. Confirm Password. Law may contact you in your professional capacity with information about our other products, services and events that we believe may be of interest.
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